- Volcanic Ash / Air Space Closure updates -

Volcanic Ash Activity Update - Tuesday 18 May

This morning the UK CAA published new arrangements for defining airspace restricted by varying levels of volcanic ash concentration. Basically these areas are:

1. Those with predicted high levels of ash concentration will be classed as No Fly Zones for ALL jet/turbine powered aircraft (i.e. includes jet engine, turboprop engine and turbine[jet] engine powered helicopters). No such aircraft will be allowed to fly into these zones, as the name suggests.

2. Areas with predicted but lower (medium?) concentrations of ash that are within levels acceptable for specified aircraft & engine combinations will be classed as Time Limited Zones. For these areas aircraft operators and their captains must determine that it is safe for them to operate in. We understand that engine/airframe manufacturers/operators will need to determine the amount of time in such zones that they can safely expose their engines/aircraft too over a period of time.

3. Enhanced Procedure Zones will be those areas where it is predicted that ash may be encountered and operators will have enhanced maintenance procedures in place to be able to operate in these areas. There may also be ATC restrictions, such as reduced traffic levels (so-called Flow Control Limits) in these areas.

It is not yet clear whether all of Europe will adopt these arrangements but it seems likely.

From lunch time today the advisory charts of predicted volcanic ash concentration levels now include 3 levels of predicted concentration, which will broadly correspond to the above airspace definitions. On these charts, issued by the UK Met Office, black areas define the predicted high concentration levels; grey the lower predicted concentration levels and red the areas where ash may be encountered. These charts continue to be issued covering each 6 hour period up to 18 hours ahead. In addition, since last Sunday the UK Met Office has also being issuing predicted ash concentration charts covering 5 days ahead for each 1200hrs UTC (GMT).

This does make it rather more difficult to work out when and which flights may be affected by airspace closures or restrictions.

Current interpretations of all this?: With the change of weather patterns in the last 24+hrs the predicted areas of high and medium concentrations are all being blown to the north-east of Iceland, over the Norwegian Sea and round into the Barents Sea (north of Russia). A narrow band of medium level concentration is predicted west of Norway but dissipating over night. Areas where ash MAY be encountered currently extend down the North Sea from the eastern side of the UK into France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany. By midday on Thursday, 22 May practical all areas of predicted ash are confined north-east of Iceland, over the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. Outside of Iceland itself there are currently no areas of European airspace that are closed.

Volcanic Ash Activity Update - Sunday 16 May

Current forecast predictive ash distribution charts cover the period until 13:00 British time Sunday, 16 May. They expect the high concentration area to cover almost all of Ireland and the Isle of Man with areas of possible contamination to cover a band stretching from north-eastern Scotland south-west wards to south-west Wales. The contaminated area is expanding south-eastwards so we may expect it to extend across more of England during Sunday afternoon and evening.

The contaminated area extends from Iceland in a triangle south and south-east of the volcano across the north Atlantic to the British Isles up to heights of 35,000ft. We can thus expect extensive areas of UK and Irish airspace to be closed on Sunday.

Volcanic Ash Activity Update - Saturday 15 May

The volcano continues to erupt, throwing ash up to a height of about 20,000ft. Winds are currently distributing it in a south and south-easterly direction towards the British Isles. Forecasts show an area of high contamination and thus a No-Fly Zone spreading across much of Ireland and the western half of Scotland by 7am UK time tomorrow, Sunday 16 May. Ahead of this area is a lower level of contamination but which is designated an Enhanced Procedure Zone.

We can expect Irish and Scottish airspace closures from the early hours of Sunday as a result. We will monitor this situation closely and try to provide another update later this evening.

Volcanic Ash Activity Update - Friday 14 May

The area of highest contamination is currently limited to immediately south and east of Iceland, primarily up to 20,000ft but with a smaller zone closer to the volcano up to 35,000ft. An area of possible contamination stretches from south-east of Iceland towards Scotland. This area is forecast to extend over the whole of Scotland from 1300 onwards, travelling further south through the afternoon and evening. However, no airspace closures for the UK have been announced as yet.

A decreasing area of possible contamination still exists over the North Atlantic south and south-west of Iceland, stretching in a narrow band to south of the Azores, although this is forecast to break up and split during today, leaving a small area of possible contamination south of the Azores by midnight. Possible airspace restrictions still in the Atlantic close to the Azores.

Other than the above all mainland European airspace remains operational. We shall watch the possible impact on Scottish airspace.

Volcanic Ash Activity Update - Wednesday 12 May

The main area of contamination is over the North Atlantic, stretching from Iceland itself in the north to south of the Canary Islands, west of the Irish coast, west of the Portuguese and Spanish coasts, with a "tail" over northern Morocco, southern Portugal, southern Spain and the Balearic Islands. Volcanic activity seems to have eased off slightly so this contamination area appears to be shrinking. The area recently affecting Portugal, Spain and Morocco has been downgraded in severity and is predicted to drift eastwards across the islands of Corsica & Sardinia.

Airspace affected today is limited to the Iceland, the Azores, Madeira & Canary Islands and parts of Portugal until later today. Apart from the islands in the North Atlantic all other European airspace should be operating normally by the end of today.

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